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People underestimate the probability of including at least one minority member in a group - EurekAlert
Cognitive psychology experiments have revealed that people significantly underestimate the probability of minority inclusion in groups. For example, when 7% of the students were gay/bisexual, the mathematical probability that a group of 30 students included at least one gay/bisexual member was 89%, whereas the most frequent estimate by respondents was 2%. Fallacies in probabilistic thinking, rather than stereotypes about minorities, are critical. This underestimation may create the illusion that minorities are irrelevant to everyday life.
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