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Modeling viral evolution: A novel SIRSVIDE framework with application to SARS-CoV-2 dynamics - EurekAlert
<p>Researchers from Peking University developed a novel computational model named SIRSVIDE (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible-Variation-Immune Decay-Immune Escape) to simulate the transmission and evolutionary dynamics of viral populations. The simulation results revealed that under specific conditions of large susceptible host populations and high mutation rates, viral populations tend to evolve towards increased transmissibility, enhanced immune escape capability, and reduced pathogenicity, accompanied by significant short-term fluctuations in viral traits. The findings provide new insights into the evolutionary patterns of SARS-CoV-2 and other viruses, with important implications for guiding public health policy-making.</p>
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